What this lesson teaches
I can judge which causes mattered most in conflicts such as Kashmir, the Arab-Israeli wars, Congo and Bosnia.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme III, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the causes of conflicts
I can judge how local states, the superpowers and the UN shaped how conflicts developed over time.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme III, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the roles of different actors in the development of conflicts over time
I can judge how well diplomacy, peacekeeping and peace talks managed conflicts.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme III, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the effectiveness of conflict management
Make a guess
Do you think outside powers caused the Bosnian War?
- No, it was ancient ethnic hatred that no one could have stopped.
- No, nationalist politicians drove it; outsiders failed, then ended it.
- Yes, the USA and the European powers started it.
Show the answer
No, nationalist politicians drove it; outsiders failed, then ended it.
Domestic politics was the main cause. Outside actors stood back for three years, then combined force and diplomacy.
Nationalist politicians turned economic crisis and ethnic difference into war. Outside actors failed for three years, then ended the war by combining force with diplomacy.
Domestic politics was the driving cause. Nationalist leaders such as Milosevic, Tudjman and Karadzic used fear and pride to win and keep power.
Ethnic and religious nationalism gave these leaders their tools. Identity linked to religion made it easy to define enemies.
Economic interests mattered in the background. Economic collapse in the 1980s created anger, and control of territory meant control of resources and jobs.
External state actors, Serbia and Croatia, armed and directed the Bosnian Serbs and Croats. Without Serbia's support, the Bosnian Serbs could not have taken 70 per cent of Bosnia.
The UN, the European Union, the USA and NATO failed for three years because they would not use force. Peace came only when US leadership, NATO bombing and shifts on the ground came together in 1995.
- Driving cause
- Nationalist leaders.
- External backers
- Serbia and Croatia.
- Turning point
- Srebrenica and NATO bombing, 1995.
Worked example: Linking causes and management
Why did the war last so long?
- Causes: nationalist leaders with clear aims.
- Support: Serbia and Croatia backed their kin.
- Weak response: aid without force; plans without enforcement.
- Change: force and US diplomacy in 1995.
Watch out for this
Outside powers caused the Bosnian War.
Bosnian and Yugoslav leaders caused the war. Outside powers mainly failed to stop it, though recognising Bosnia without protecting it was criticised.
Check your understanding
Which factor best explains why peace came in late 1995?
- The Bosnian Serbs won the war and took what they wanted
- Force and diplomacy combined under US leadership
- The UN arms embargo forcing the sides to stop
Show the answer
Force and diplomacy combined under US leadership
Right. Earlier plans had lacked force.