What this lesson teaches
I can judge how well diplomacy, peacekeeping and peace talks managed conflicts.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme III, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the effectiveness of conflict management
I can judge how local states, the superpowers and the UN shaped how conflicts developed over time.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme III, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the roles of different actors in the development of conflicts over time
Make a guess
European peace plans for Bosnia in 1992 and 1993 failed. What do you think finally changed the war in 1995?
- Russia sent troops to force a ceasefire.
- The European plans were redesigned and then accepted.
- US leadership, NATO bombing and battlefield shifts.
Show the answer
US leadership, NATO bombing and battlefield shifts.
Once the USA took the lead and NATO bombed Bosnian Serb positions, Croat and Bosniak advances changed the balance.
European peace plans failed because no one would enforce them. In 1995 the USA took the lead, NATO bombed, and the balance on the ground shifted.
The European Community tried first. Its 1992 Lisbon plan and the 1993 Vance-Owen plan, drawn up with the UN, proposed dividing Bosnia into ethnic cantons or provinces. The Bosnian Serbs rejected Vance-Owen in May 1993.
The problem was enforcement. European governments had troops in UNPROFOR and feared for their safety. The USA would not send ground troops. Russia sympathised with the Serbs.
In 1994 a Contact Group of the USA, Russia, Britain, France and Germany offered a new plan. Bosnia would be split 51 to 49 per cent between a Bosniak-Croat Federation and the Serbs. The Bosnian Serbs again said no.
NATO enforced a no-fly zone from 1993, and in February 1994 it shot down Serb aircraft in its first ever combat action. But it used force only in small doses.
After Srebrenica and the shelling of a Sarajevo market in August 1995, NATO launched Operation Deliberate Force, a heavy bombing campaign against Bosnian Serb forces. Together with Croat and Bosniak advances, it pushed the Serbs to negotiate.
- Vance-Owen plan
- 1993: rejected by the Bosnian Serbs.
- Contact Group
- 1994: a 51-49 split proposed.
- Deliberate Force
- August-September 1995.
Worked example: Why diplomacy failed until 1995
What changed in 1995?
- Before: plans without force; the Serbs held 70 per cent and had no reason to agree.
- Change: US leadership after Srebrenica.
- Force: NATO bombing and Croat-Bosniak offensives.
- Result: the Serbs accepted talks.
Watch out for this
The European peace plans failed because they were badly designed.
The Contact Group's 51-49 split became the basis of the final settlement. The plans failed mainly because no one would use force to make the Bosnian Serbs accept them.
Check your understanding
What was Operation Deliberate Force?
- NATO's bombing of Bosnian Serb forces in 1995
- A Bosnian Serb offensive against the safe areas
- A UN aid convoy that reached besieged Sarajevo
Show the answer
NATO's bombing of Bosnian Serb forces in 1995
Right. It helped push the Serbs to negotiate.