Power Shifts: US-China Rivalry Trap
The Thucydides Trap is Graham Allison's idea that a rising power threatening a ruling power makes war likely, though not inevitable. It frames debate about US-China rivalry.
Topics: politics, technology
Example
Harvard political scientist Graham Allison coined the term 'Thucydides Trap' after the ancient Greek historian who wrote that Athens' rise and Sparta's fear made war inevitable. In September 2015, Allison published a study from Harvard's Belfer Center of 16 cases over 500 years in which a rising power challenged a ruling power: 12 ended in war and 4 did not. He applies it to US-China tensions over trade, technology, Taiwan and the South China Sea, but argues war is not inevitable if leaders learn from the four peaceful cases.
Key facts
- Graham Allison's Belfer Center study found that 12 of 16 cases of a rising power challenging a ruling power over 500 years ended in war.
Limitations
- Sixteen hand-picked cases are too few for firm statistics, and nuclear weapons and economic interdependence make today's US-China rivalry unlike most past cases.
Evaluations
politics evaluation
Support
The idea explains why rising and established powers mistrust each other: each defensive move can look like a threat to the other.
Counterargument
Nuclear weapons make great-power war so destructive that both sides have strong reasons to avoid it, unlike in most of Allison's cases.
Rebuttal
Allison agrees war is not inevitable; his point is that leaders must work actively to avoid it, as in the peaceful cases such as Britain and the US around 1900.
Additional support
Leaders including Xi Jinping have referred to the Thucydides Trap, showing the idea shapes how governments talk about the rivalry.
technology evaluation
Support
Competition over semiconductors and AI, including US export controls on advanced chips to China since 2022, shows rivalry moving into technology.
Counterargument
US and Chinese economies remain closely linked through trade and supply chains, which raises the cost of conflict for both.
Rebuttal
Interdependence did not prevent war in 1914, when Britain and Germany were major trading partners, so it is no guarantee.
Additional support
Both countries' efforts to reduce dependence on each other's technology suggest they are preparing for long-term rivalry.
Sources
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School: Thucydides's Trap
- Michigan War Studies Review (2017-08-01): Review of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap?