What this lesson teaches
I can judge which causes mattered most in ending the Cold War, and weigh historians' views.
Syllabus 9174, Paper 1, Theme I, Learning Outcomes. evaluate the causes of the end of the Cold War
Make a guess
In 1986 world oil prices collapsed. What do you think this did to the Soviet Union?
- Little, because a planned economy ignores world prices.
- It lost much of its foreign currency income.
- It gained, because cheaper oil cut its factories' costs.
Show the answer
It lost much of its foreign currency income.
Oil sales paid for imports, including grain and technology. The price crash deepened an economy already stagnating.
Economic stagnation, falling oil prices, the war in Afghanistan and military costs left the USSR unable to sustain the Cold War.
The Soviet planned economy stagnated from the 1970s. Factories met output targets but produced poor-quality goods, and shortages of food and consumer goods were common. The USSR fell further behind the West in technology, especially computers.
Military spending absorbed a very large share of the economy, perhaps 15 to 25 per cent of output. The Soviet Union also subsidised allies in Eastern Europe, Cuba and Vietnam.
The war in Afghanistan, from 1979, cost lives and money without victory. When world oil prices collapsed in 1986, the USSR lost much of its foreign currency earnings.
The Chernobyl nuclear disaster in April 1986 exposed the system's secrecy and inefficiency. These problems convinced Gorbachev that reform at home required calm relations abroad.
- Afghanistan
- Soviet war from 1979; withdrawal completed February 1989.
- Oil price collapse
- 1986.
- Chernobyl
- April 1986.
Real examples to use
Afghanistan, 1979 to 1989
Nearly 15,000 Soviet soldiers died in a war the USSR could not win. The last troops left on 15 February 1989.
Oil earnings fall, 1985 to 1986
US intelligence estimated that Soviet hard-currency earnings from oil fell about 20 per cent in 1985, before the 1986 price collapse cut them further.
Chernobyl, 26 April 1986
A reactor exploded in Soviet Ukraine. Officials delayed telling the public, which showed how secrecy damaged the system.
Worked example: Linking decline to foreign policy
Why did the USSR's problems change its foreign policy?
- Problem: a weak economy could not pay for both arms and better living standards.
- Leader: Gorbachev saw reform as urgent.
- Choice: he cut military commitments to free resources for perestroika.
- Result: the arms race and the Eastern European empire became burdens to reduce.
Watch out for this
The Soviet Union collapsed only because the USA outspent it.
US pressure added to the strain, but long-term economic weakness, Afghanistan and falling oil prices were also major causes.
Check your understanding
Why did the 1986 collapse in oil prices hurt the USSR?
- It forced the USSR to end aid to Cuba that year.
- Oil exports were a major source of its foreign currency.
- It had to import more oil for its factories.
Show the answer
Oil exports were a major source of its foreign currency.
Right. Lower earnings worsened its economic crisis.