Urban growth and population loss

H2 Geography - syllabus 9173, 2027

What this lesson teaches

  • I can explain the sustainability challenges of fast urban growth and of population loss.

    Syllabus 9173, Topic 3.1, 1. Sustainable Urban Development. How do urban population trends influence progress towards sustainable development?

Make a guess

A city grows from 1 million to 1.1 million people over five years, while the whole country grows from 2 million to 2.4 million. Is the country becoming more urban?

  1. It is impossible to tell from these numbers.
  2. Yes, because cities usually grow faster than countries.
  3. Yes, because the city gained 100,000 people.
  4. No. The urban share falls.
Show the answer

No. The urban share falls.

The city grew, but the country grew faster. Urban numbers rose while the share living in urban areas fell.

Growing and shrinking cities face different pressures, and the outcome depends on how fast they change and how well they respond.

Urban growth means more people living in urban areas. It comes from natural increase (more births than deaths), net migration into urban areas, or reclassification, when an area is newly counted as urban.

The level of urbanisation is the share of the population living in urban areas. The urbanisation rate is how fast that share rises or falls, as a percentage change over a stated period. It depends on changes in both urban and rural populations. For example, a fall from 50% to 45% over five years is a fall of 5 percentage points, or 10% of the starting share. Urban numbers can grow while the share falls, if the national population grows faster.

Rapid urban growth can raise demand for housing, transport, water, schools and rubbish collection faster than investment can keep up. Congestion, unaffordable housing and unserved settlements may follow. But a bigger population can also support more jobs and efficient shared services. So growth is a pressure to manage, not an automatic failure.

Urban population loss can follow job losses, people moving away, or more deaths than births. Fewer residents and businesses mean less tax income, while roads, pipes and buildings still need maintaining. Empty buildings lower confidence, and closing services make the city less attractive, so even more people leave.

Put these in order

A city's main industry closes. Put the spiral of decline in order.

  • The city becomes less attractive, so even more people leave.
  • The city's main factories close and jobs are lost.
  • Services close and empty buildings lower confidence.
  • Tax income falls, but roads, pipes and buildings still need maintaining.
  • People move away to find work.
Show the answer
  1. The city's main factories close and jobs are lost. Without work, many residents and young people move away to find jobs elsewhere.
  2. People move away to find work. Fewer residents and businesses pay less tax, so the city has less money.
  3. Tax income falls, but roads, pipes and buildings still need maintaining. With less money and the same upkeep costs, services are cut and buildings stand empty.
  4. Services close and empty buildings lower confidence. A place with fewer services and more empty buildings is less attractive to live in or invest in.
  5. The city becomes less attractive, so even more people leave.

Responses differ. A growing city needs serviced land and transport in time. A shrinking city needs to adapt its infrastructure, reuse empty land and keep services for the people who remain. National income affects resources, but growing and shrinking cities can exist in the same country. Plan for the local pattern instead of assuming every city will keep growing.

Growth components
Natural increase, net migration and reclassification.
Urbanisation level
The share of people living in urban areas.
Urbanisation rate
How fast that share changes over a stated period.

Step by step

Pick the measure

Urban numbers or urban share?

Explain the mismatch

Compare demand or taxes with existing services.

Choose a response

Expand or adapt to match the trend.

Real examples to use

Growing: Delhi, India

The UN's 2018 estimates put the Delhi urban area at about 29 million people, and projected it to grow to about 39 million by 2030. Growth on this scale strains housing, water and transport faster than they can be built.

Shrinking: Detroit, USA

Detroit's population fell from 1,849,568 in 1950 to 639,111 in 2020 (US Census), as car jobs and residents moved away. With fewer taxpayers but the same roads and pipes to maintain, the city filed for bankruptcy in July 2013.

Worked example: Two service budgets

In a made-up city, reclassification adds 20,000 people to the urban count without anyone moving. Services must now reach them. In a shrinking city, the same roads serve fewer taxpayers. One needs more capacity; the other must adapt.

    Watch out for this

    A shrinking city can cut spending in line with its population loss.

    Roads and pipes still need upkeep. Fewer users do not shrink the network.

    Check your understanding

    Over five years, a city grows from 1 million to 1.1 million, while the country grows from 2 million to 2.4 million. What happens?

    1. Urban growth, but a falling urban share of people.
    2. Neither urban growth nor a change in share.
    3. Urbanisation, because any rise in urban numbers raises the share.
    Show the answer

    Urban growth, but a falling urban share of people.

    Yes. The urbanisation rate is negative: the share falls from 50% to about 46% because the country grew faster.

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