Why Kim thought he could win

G3 Elective History - syllabus K336, 2027

What this lesson teaches

  • I can weigh up how the rise of communist China in 1949 raised Cold War tensions in Asia.

    Syllabus K336, The Cold War, Learning Outcomes. Assess the impact of the emergence of Communist China on Cold War tensions.

  • I can weigh up why the Korean War and the Vietnam War broke out, and what followed each war.

    Syllabus K336, The Cold War, Learning Outcomes. Assess the reasons for the outbreak of the Korean War and the Vietnam War, and their aftermath.

Make a guess

Kim Il Sung asked Stalin many times to back an invasion of the South. Why do you think Stalin finally agreed in 1950?

  1. The UN had asked the USSR to reunite Korea under one government.
  2. Stalin wanted a direct war with the USA to test its strength.
  3. A quick win looked possible after Mao's victory and the US pull-out.
Show the answer

A quick win looked possible after Mao's victory and the US pull-out.

Mao now ruled China, most US troops had left, and the USA had not clearly promised to defend the South. Stalin still wanted Mao's agreement.

Kim wanted to rule all of Korea; Soviet and Chinese backing, and doubts about US support for the South, made him think a quick win was possible.

In 1949, Mao Zedong's communists won control of mainland China. North Korea now had a large communist neighbour. Korean soldiers who had fought in China came home with battle experience. In February 1950, China and the USSR signed an alliance. It made the communist powers look united, although each leader had his own interests.

Kim asked Soviet leader Joseph Stalin many times to back an invasion. Stalin feared war with the USA. But in 1950, he agreed, as long as Mao also agreed. Soviet weapons helped the North prepare.

Most US troops had left South Korea. US leaders had not clearly promised to defend it. So Kim and his backers hoped to win fast before the USA stepped in. This was a gamble, and it failed.

1949
Communists win in China.
Stalin's condition
Kim must also get Mao's agreement.
The gamble
A quick win before the USA could respond.

Worked example: Aims, support and a risky bet

Explain Soviet influence without treating Kim as having no aims of his own.

  1. Kim's aim: unite Korea under his rule.
  2. Support: Stalin's approval, Soviet weapons and Mao's agreement.
  3. Bet: the USA would not intervene. When it did, the gamble failed.

Watch out for this

The invasion was simply Stalin's plan, and Kim had no aims of his own.

Kim pushed for the invasion to unite Korea. Stalin and Mao gave the backing he needed.

Check your understanding

Why did Kim expect a quick victory?

  1. He had Soviet backing and doubted the USA would defend the South.
  2. The USA had publicly promised to stay out of any war in Korea.
  3. South Korea had invaded first, so he expected world opinion on his side.
Show the answer

He had Soviet backing and doubted the USA would defend the South.

Yes. That expectation turned out to be wrong.

Sources and context

Background reading for this chapter.

  • Truman Library: statement of 27 June 1950

    Paraphrase of President Truman's public statement of 27 June 1950, held by the Truman Library.

  • FRUS: Zhou statement, December 1950

    Paraphrase of Chinese foreign minister Zhou Enlai's statement of 22 December 1950, transmitted to the UN on 23 December and reproduced in a US diplomatic telegram of 24 December.

  • National Archives: Korean Armistice Agreement

    Paraphrase of the Korean Armistice Agreement, 27 July 1953, preamble and Article I, held by the US National Archives.

  • Truman Library: statement of 27 June 1950

    An original cartoon drawn for these notes in the style of an American newspaper cartoon published in July 1950, soon after the UN Security Council asked member states to help South Korea. It is not a copy of a real cartoon.

  • Truman announces American action, 27 June 1950

    Extract from President Truman's public statement on the situation in Korea, 27 June 1950, two days after North Korea invaded. A US government document in the public domain; text from the American Presidency Project.

  • the UN Security Council resolution, 27 June 1950

    Extract from United Nations Security Council Resolution 83 (1950), adopted on 27 June 1950 by 7 votes to 1 (Yugoslavia), while the Soviet representative was boycotting the Council. A UN record.

  • China's warning, October 1950

    Extract from a circular telegram from the US Acting Secretary of State to US diplomatic posts, 5 October 1950, two days before American forces crossed the 38th parallel. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, volume VII, document 614. A US government document in the public domain. (Abbreviations as in the original.)

  • MacArthur advises Truman, 15 October 1950

    Extract from the record of the meeting between President Truman and General MacArthur at Wake Island, 15 October 1950, compiled by General Omar Bradley from notes kept by the officials from Washington. Top Secret. Foreign Relations of the United States, 1950, volume VII, document 680. A US government document in the public domain.

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